NFL Playoffs 2007 – ROUND TWO – A Guide to Getting Paid

"It can be argued that man's instinct to gamble is the only reason he is still not a monkey up in the trees." -Mario Puzo



















I think I should change the title. After my Wild Card Weekend Picks, I’m not even sure I’m qualified to be writing another piece about NFL Wagering. After last week’s shellacking, here’s where I stand with the “hypothetical” $1,000 bank roll I started with.

$200 Kansas City +7 RESULT -$220
$100 Seattle -2 RESULT -$110
$200 Patriots -9 RESULT +$200
$100 Eagles -6.5 RESULT -$110

As you can see, I went 1 for 4 in the first weekend. As it stands, if these were “real” wagers, I’d be down $240 right now, or roughly 25% of my starting stake. That, boys and girls, is why we don’t gamble. Got it…gambling is BAD.

But just in case you're interseted, here's what I’m looking at this weekend:

Seattle @ Chicago (LINE: Chicago -8.5 o/u 37)

We all know about the Bears. Dennis Green “crowned their asses.” Rex Grossman (3,193yds, 23 TD, 20 INTS) started off like an MVP Candidate and then quickly fizzled out. His play has been a rollercoaster this season (He had a handful of games with a QB rating over 100. AND a couple in which he managed to post a goose egg. Yup, a QB rating of ZERO.) and the well pub’d Bear’s Defense has quickly become porous, giving up 300 yards of total offense to power houses in Tampa, Detroit, and Green Bay. The #1 seed in the WEAKER conference has many unanswered questions.

In the same breath, Seattle didn’t beat on Romo’s Cowboys the way I had expected. Hell, if Romo wouldn't have mistaken the football for a LaBamba's Burrito, Seattle most likely would be sitting at home this week. But these 'Hawks are an improved team compared to the Seahawks that the Bears beat 37-6 in the fourth game of the season.

Had this spread not been -8.5, it would have been a tough one to pick. The actual WINNER still is a tough call, depending on which Grossman shows up to the game. But we could give two shits about who wins the game. We’re interested in WHO COVERS. After all, Money makes the world go ‘round. Seattle covers the 8.5, but I’m not going to try and pick a winner in this one, too many variables.
Parlay Special!
SEATTLE +8.5, OVER 37

Indy @ Baltimore (LINE: Baltimore -4 o/u 41)

The Ravens are simply too good. Yes, the Colts stepped up and shut down Larry Johnson last week. They looked like a team who found their defense. But what happened to Payton Manning? Three interceptions and only one TD? If the Chiefs could have mustered any sign of offence, the Colts would be making Tee times this weekend.

I hate to do it again, but we all know Payton Manning folds under pressure. Add to that being on the road, and this one’s in the bag.
BALTIMORE -4

Philly @ New Orleans (LINE: Saints -6 o/u 48)

This one’s a tough one to call, straight up anyways. Philly’s won six straight heading into this game. They seem to be a force to be reckoned with in the NFC. And all of this takes place AFTER Donovan McNabb goes down? Suspect. The Eagles are coming off a first round win over the NY Giants.

The Saints have been an offensive force all season. QB Drew Brees has thrown for 4,818 yds, 26TD and 13 INTS. They had a buy in the first round so have been sitting idle since their regular season finale, a loss to Carolina. (Don’t panic about the loss. The Saints couldn’t improve their playoff situation and benched many starters before half time.)

DIFFRENCE MAKER: Eagles Pro Bowl CB Lito Sheppard will miss this game with a dislocated elbow.
Parlay Special! Remember, we’re down $240 from week one. Only way to make it back: CHASE THE LOSS!!!
SAINTS -6, OVER 48

New England @ San Diego (LINE: Chargers-4.5 o/u 46.5)

I’d love to pick the Tom & Bill show again this week. After the ass raping they posted on their old buddy Mangina by kicking the living shit out of the Goddamn Jets, I’d love to keep riding them into the sunset. They have every last facet of the game down. There’s no reason they shouldn’t win every game in the playoffs. It’s just what they do.

But they’re playing San Diego and LT. In his house.

There’s not much to say about San Diego. They haven’t lost a football game since Week 7. They’ve been playing just about as good as any team can play. Tomlinson is running like a well oiled machine. Their defense is mauling people. What’s not to like about the Chargers?

A ROOKIE Quarterback. Even better, a rookie QB who sprained a foot in on December 31st. If the Pat’s D can get at Rivers and knock him out of this game, things may get interesting. That said…

PATRIOTS +4.5