NFL Playoffs 2007 –Conference Championships– A Guide to Getting Paid

"The subject of gambling is all encompassing. It combines man's natural play instinct with his desire to know about his fate and his future." - Franz Rosenthal

Well, 1 for 4 on Wild Card Weekend left me $240 in the hole. I was sure I had week two in the bag.

I went 2-2. I’ll take it. Thanks to a parlay, I’m back in the saddle.

$100 Seattle +8.5, Over 37 (Parlay) RESULT +$270
$100 Baltimore -4 RESULT -$110
$100 Saints -6, Over 48 (Parlay) RESULT -$110
$100 Patriots +4.5 RESULT +$100

So after the second playoff weekend, I find myself with $910 of my starting $1000 bank roll. Not too bad. I had some action, just missed a few bets.

Now we’re down to the Championship round. This is where we separate the men from the boys. Where we start making some real money.

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS @ CHICAGO BEARS (BEARS -1, o/u 43)

There’s a lot to be said about the Bears. As a team, they show flashes of potential that suggest they can win it all. Yes, there are holes in the secondary. Yes, the defensive line has a few injuries. Yes, they couldn’t HOLD the lead last weekend. Yes, Rex Grossman’s decision making has been poor at times.

But they keep winning. The Bears manage to make a big play when it’s needed. This team’s got heart. They’re pesky, refusing to go away when they’re at their lowest point.

Add to that home field advantage. Yes, we’ve all heard about the weather factor, that New Orleans is going to shiver to death on the sidelines and we’ll win the game by default. I’ve stated my case on that subject, you all know where I stand. It’s going make a difference, but not enough to swing the game.

This game is going to come down to a few simple factors. The Bears defense HAS to stop Deuce AND get pressure on Drew Brees. If New Orleans can get their run game going and start to set up the passing game, look out.

On offense, the Bears need to hold onto the ball for as long as possible to keep Brees & Co. off the field. That means a steady dose of Jones and Benson. Yes, BOTH OF THEM.

It’s also known that the Saint’s secondary is shaky. By getting the run established early, Rex (The Sex Machine) Grossman will be able to take a few shots deep down field.

*STATS of INTEREST* – The Saints had the second lowest number of takeaways in the NFL during the regular season, 19.

Five of the last SEVEN #1 NFC Seeds made it to the Super Bowl.

I think the Bears will get the lead early and hold on for the win.

Chicago -1, OVER 43

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS @ INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (COLTS -3, o/u 47.5)

Haven’t we seen this whole song and dance before?

One thing to say: Four Super Bowl appearances in the last Six Years.

While Brady and the Pat’s were given the opportunity to stay in the game last week vs. the Chargers, I’m not so sure they’ll have that chance this weekend.

The Colt’s defense is playing much, much better than they have in past years. They’ve only allowed 14 points TOTAL in the first to playoff games. But in the same breath, the offense of KC and Baltimore looked like shit in both games. This go ‘round, they’ll face Brady.

Brady, who looked off his game last week in San Diego, will be ready this week. For one, it’s going to be played in Indy, which means DOME. I’m sure the Pat’s will enjoy the controlled environment as opposed to the blowing snow and frigid temps at the ‘Fox. And based on past years that the Patriots have walked over Indy to get to the Super Bowl, I’m going to go out on a limb and say Brady loves making Peyton his bitch.

Peyton Manning has been off his game in a big way. He’s thrown 1 TD and 5 INT’s in the first two games. If this pattern continues, he’ll be able to watch the Super Bowl at home with Eli and Archie.

I’ve said it for two straight weeks. This week it’s going to happen. Brady will send Peyton packing.

New England +3, UNDER 47.5

Sunday Night Play Off Report.

What I learned today...

Chicago 27 - Seattle 24

First off, I hit my Parlay. That helps.

Rex Grossman (282 yards, 75.9 Passer Rating, 1 TD, 1 INT, 1 Fumble) played good enough to win. He still threw a number of passes behind his receivers. And he still shits his pants when he's under pressure. The coaching staff needs to explain to him that sometimes it's ok to take a sack. But all in all, he played a decent game.




















The Bears Defense steps up to make big plays. While their secondary is shaky (Charles Tilman, I'm talking to you) they answered the bell on numerous occasions and kept their team in the game.

Matt Hasselbeck had a tough game. His offensive line didn't help him all that much. He found himself scraping his ass off the turf early and often.

The Bears have awesome fans....check out this guy...he lives in my town...




















That's a FAN!

Next week the Saints come to town. I've already read morons talking about "Bear Weather" and that the concept Saints won't be able to play in the cold. I hate that thought fucking thought process. Regardless of the goddamn weather, this NFC Championship game is going to be a good one.

New England 24 - San Diego 21

Again, I hit my bet. Two for two on Sunday. Added bonus: Patriots won outright.

Tom Brady and Bill Belichick are a tough pair to beat when the play offs roll around.

Brady (57.6 Passer Rating, 2 TD's, 3 INT) was shaky. He looked out of rhythm on more than one occasion. But he persevered and they came out on top.

The Pat's Defense is for real.

The league MVP can tackle a man by the face mask and the ref's will pick up the flag.


















Phillip Rivers (55.5 Passer Rating, 0 TD's, 1 INT, 1 Fumble) showed he was a rookie.

A 54 yard field goal is a long ass kick.


















Marty Schottenheimer can't win a play off game to save his ass. If he doesn't lose his job I'll be surprised. Nine Pro Bowlers,League MVP, and home field advantage and they can't advance?

Now the Patriots get to take out Peyton and the Colts. Yes, I said take out. Third time's a charm, right?

Saturday Night Play Off Report

What we learned today...

COLTS 15 - Ravens 6

The Ravens offense sucks. Actually, it can't suck. It's fucking non-existent. Steve McNair needs to retire.

They can't win a field goal race either. With that defense, they shouldn't lose a game. But ya can't win if ya can't score.

The Colt's Defense may not be as bad as we all thought. Granted, they had little to worry about today.

Peyton Manning is as bad in the post season as we all thought. His team won another game, IN SPITE of him.


















Peyton's fore head is growing at an increasingly alarming rate.

So next week we get to see if the Colts can do it again, this time against a team that can score. I picked that prick Manning to lose twice in two weeks and he's proved me wrong both times.

I hate being wrong, but I'm a pig headed gut. I'm going to make the early prediction that the Colts will lose in the AFC Championship game against the Chargers or Patriots.

But for now, we have this moment to remember...or make us sick...















After Saturday's win over the Ravens, Archie Manning
embraced his oldest son and proclaimed, "At least you're
not the fucking failure your little brother is."

I hate you Peyton.

New Orleans - Philly

This game's in progress. I will make a few observations and be back with more tomorrow..

Andy Reid needs to pass a few buffet lines. The guys' pushing maximum density. His Defense came out hitting.

The Saints have too many weapons. They've got to be the clear favorite to come out of the NFC and head to the Super Bowl.

And it's good to see that New Orleans is back to normal after Katrina. Even the young, white, blonde hooker population has returned.

Wonder if Fox will see a fine from the FCC for broadcasting this image? After all, she's got the word FUCK on her shirt. They should be happy she wasn't actually doing said activity in the stands....

More tomorrow..

NFL Playoffs 2007 – ROUND TWO – A Guide to Getting Paid

"It can be argued that man's instinct to gamble is the only reason he is still not a monkey up in the trees." -Mario Puzo



















I think I should change the title. After my Wild Card Weekend Picks, I’m not even sure I’m qualified to be writing another piece about NFL Wagering. After last week’s shellacking, here’s where I stand with the “hypothetical” $1,000 bank roll I started with.

$200 Kansas City +7 RESULT -$220
$100 Seattle -2 RESULT -$110
$200 Patriots -9 RESULT +$200
$100 Eagles -6.5 RESULT -$110

As you can see, I went 1 for 4 in the first weekend. As it stands, if these were “real” wagers, I’d be down $240 right now, or roughly 25% of my starting stake. That, boys and girls, is why we don’t gamble. Got it…gambling is BAD.

But just in case you're interseted, here's what I’m looking at this weekend:

Seattle @ Chicago (LINE: Chicago -8.5 o/u 37)

We all know about the Bears. Dennis Green “crowned their asses.” Rex Grossman (3,193yds, 23 TD, 20 INTS) started off like an MVP Candidate and then quickly fizzled out. His play has been a rollercoaster this season (He had a handful of games with a QB rating over 100. AND a couple in which he managed to post a goose egg. Yup, a QB rating of ZERO.) and the well pub’d Bear’s Defense has quickly become porous, giving up 300 yards of total offense to power houses in Tampa, Detroit, and Green Bay. The #1 seed in the WEAKER conference has many unanswered questions.

In the same breath, Seattle didn’t beat on Romo’s Cowboys the way I had expected. Hell, if Romo wouldn't have mistaken the football for a LaBamba's Burrito, Seattle most likely would be sitting at home this week. But these 'Hawks are an improved team compared to the Seahawks that the Bears beat 37-6 in the fourth game of the season.

Had this spread not been -8.5, it would have been a tough one to pick. The actual WINNER still is a tough call, depending on which Grossman shows up to the game. But we could give two shits about who wins the game. We’re interested in WHO COVERS. After all, Money makes the world go ‘round. Seattle covers the 8.5, but I’m not going to try and pick a winner in this one, too many variables.
Parlay Special!
SEATTLE +8.5, OVER 37

Indy @ Baltimore (LINE: Baltimore -4 o/u 41)

The Ravens are simply too good. Yes, the Colts stepped up and shut down Larry Johnson last week. They looked like a team who found their defense. But what happened to Payton Manning? Three interceptions and only one TD? If the Chiefs could have mustered any sign of offence, the Colts would be making Tee times this weekend.

I hate to do it again, but we all know Payton Manning folds under pressure. Add to that being on the road, and this one’s in the bag.
BALTIMORE -4

Philly @ New Orleans (LINE: Saints -6 o/u 48)

This one’s a tough one to call, straight up anyways. Philly’s won six straight heading into this game. They seem to be a force to be reckoned with in the NFC. And all of this takes place AFTER Donovan McNabb goes down? Suspect. The Eagles are coming off a first round win over the NY Giants.

The Saints have been an offensive force all season. QB Drew Brees has thrown for 4,818 yds, 26TD and 13 INTS. They had a buy in the first round so have been sitting idle since their regular season finale, a loss to Carolina. (Don’t panic about the loss. The Saints couldn’t improve their playoff situation and benched many starters before half time.)

DIFFRENCE MAKER: Eagles Pro Bowl CB Lito Sheppard will miss this game with a dislocated elbow.
Parlay Special! Remember, we’re down $240 from week one. Only way to make it back: CHASE THE LOSS!!!
SAINTS -6, OVER 48

New England @ San Diego (LINE: Chargers-4.5 o/u 46.5)

I’d love to pick the Tom & Bill show again this week. After the ass raping they posted on their old buddy Mangina by kicking the living shit out of the Goddamn Jets, I’d love to keep riding them into the sunset. They have every last facet of the game down. There’s no reason they shouldn’t win every game in the playoffs. It’s just what they do.

But they’re playing San Diego and LT. In his house.

There’s not much to say about San Diego. They haven’t lost a football game since Week 7. They’ve been playing just about as good as any team can play. Tomlinson is running like a well oiled machine. Their defense is mauling people. What’s not to like about the Chargers?

A ROOKIE Quarterback. Even better, a rookie QB who sprained a foot in on December 31st. If the Pat’s D can get at Rivers and knock him out of this game, things may get interesting. That said…

PATRIOTS +4.5

The "Don't Bet on This" Playoff Preview

Ahhh the NFL Playoffs. I love it! Enough of the political tomfoolery that is known as the BCS, time for some real football! I know that Big Willie already posted his first round predictions while playing the spread but I'd like to do mine March Madness style and pick my winners all the way through right now. And, since I am sure to be wrong on most of these (although if I am right you will hear me gloat) I will not play the spread since I don't like to gamble on football that much. So, here we go:

DALLAS COWBOYS AT SEATTLE SEAHAWKS

First off let me state how pitiful the NFC is. That fact cannot be overstated. Seattle has quietly come into the playoffs, while RomoMania has cooled off in the last few weeks (let me go on record as saying that I personally believe Romo had a few good weeks that made his head big but now its time to come back to earth and play like the no-name QB he really is but like I said, 99.9% of my predictions are usually wrong). Bill Parcells, FUPA and all, has lost control. Its not his fault. The blame is solely on owner Jerry Jones. He basically forced Parcells to have T.O. and lets face it, nobody can control his pompous ass. But I digress. Seattle is finally back at full strength and they are playing at home. I'm taking Seattle in a blowout.


NEW YORK GIANTS AT PHILADELPHIA EAGLES

Gotta hand it to Andy Reid, he's a hell of a coach. Just a month and a half ago everyone was saying the Giants were the team in the NFC. Then it was Dallas. Well, the Eagles emerged from that division the victors, winning 5 straight and rolling into the playoffs with momentum, and they did it without their star QB. On the other hand, the Giants have looked just awful. Their lone bright spot has been Tiki Barber. Eli Manning (a major pussy) has been getting bashed in the media, and rightfully so. I am actually surprised Daddy hasn't come to his defense and demand the newspapers quit picking on his baby. Well, once again Barber will be the lone bright spot (maybe some Brandon Jacobs action too, since him and I are alumni of the same school), Eli Manning will suck hippo cock, Shockey will blame the coaching staff, Coughlin will blame Eli, Strahan will blame Plaxico, Plaxico will say "I don't give a shit what that gap-toothed fat fuck thinks, now let me smoke this spliff in peace", Pappa Manning will defend Eli, Coughlin will choke Pappa Manning ala Latrell Sprewell, the Giants will lose and Coughlin will get fired.

















"Stop picking on my baby boy! He's very
sensitive! You're hurting his feelings!"


NEW YORK JETS AT NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS

Bill Belichick feels he was betrayed by Eric Mangini and feels Mangini is being a baby. Belichick has actually acted like a baby after a regular season loss to the Jets. Conventional wisdom would say Brady + Belichick + home field + playing the goddamn Jets = easy New England victory. I say otherwise. Now, this is mostly on sheer gut feeling, but I think the Jets will be the surprise team of the playoffs. The major X factor here is Belichick's cockyness. He had won so many times with interchangeable parts that he told Dieon Branch, New England's only real receiver, to get the fuck outta town. Mangini has proven he can coach, and I think he will have a defensive scheme that will contain Brady. If the Jets can stop Lawrence Maroney, which is no easy task, they will squeak by the Pats. Now let the barrage of emails calling me a complete moron begin. I won't blame you.


KANSAS CITY CHIEFS AT INDIANAPOLIS COLTS

This may be the easiest game to predict. The Colts have no defense. The Chiefs have a helluva offensive weapon in Larry Johnson (by the way, just to show you I do admit when I am wrong, I predicted that the Chiefs would have O Line problems this year and LJ would be a flop. Boy do I have egg on my face!). The Colts window of opportunity has officially shut. Plus, Peyton Manning has proven time and time again that when it comes to the postseason he is useless (I hope Pappa Manning doesn't demand I take that statement back). I'm taking the Chiefs in a landslide.


This all brings us to the Division Round:

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES AT NEW ORLEANS SAINTS

Let me say that although Nick Saban is getting bashed for taking Duante Culpepper instead of Drew Brees, lets be real. Both QBs were injured last year and it was a crap shoot. That all being said, Brees is a stud. Personally, I think he should have won the MVP, or at least Co-MVP (I'm sure I will get another barrage of emails but let me say that LT is my favorite current player in the NFL and the above statement is not taking anything away from him, I just feel the Saints would be a 4 win team without Brees, whereas the Chargers would be above .500 without LT). This game is where the Eagles run out of gas. The Saints offense is too potent, especially at home on turf. Saints in a barn burner.


SEATTLE SEAHAWKS AT CHICAGO BEARS

Da Bearss! Da Bearss!! Polish Sausage, Ditka, Bearss.....Enough of my dreaming. This is definitely the hardest game for me to predict. Good Rex = Bears Blowout, Bad Rex = Bears loss. Which one will show up? And what about that banged up defense? And have we seen enough of the Seahawks at full strength this year to fairly assess them? ARRGH!!! Well, I'm a lifelong Bears fan, so I'm pretty accustomed to disappointment. God, I really hope I am wrong on this one, but I'm predicting Bad Rex comes to play and brings his 1.3 or lower passer rating with him and sends the Seahawks to victory.


NEW YORK JETS AT BALTIMORE RAVENS

The Ravens are another one of those teams nobody talks about. Their defense is stellar as usual, and their offense is improved thanks to them actually having a QB for once. That's about all the commentary I have on them. Brian Billick thinks he is a genius, Eric Mangini could be a genius. Gut feeling here again, I'm taking the Jets in an upset.


KANSAS CITY CHIEFS AT SAN DIEGO CHARGERS

San Diego Chargers, featuring league MVP LT. Kansas City Chiefs featuring the game's second best RB LT. Wow. What a game this will be. San Diego is the toast of the NFL. The Chiefs defense is improved this year, but they are not as good as the Chargers' defense. LT will have 5 TDs and the Chargers will roll to victory.


Now for the Conference Championships:

SEATTLE SEAHAWKS AT NEW ORLEANS SAINTS

Once again, who the hell knows what we will see from Seattle. The potent Saints offense will once again be at home on turf, but Shaun Alexander will also benefit from playing on turf, and Seattle also has a good defense. The Saints have virtually no defense. I'm going with big game coaching experience on this one and giving the nod to Mike Holmgren and the Seahawks. Repeat NFC Champs.


NEW YORK JETS AT SAN DIEGO CHARGERS

It's time for Schottenheimer to finally make it to the big game. Mangini may be a genius, but this Jets team just doesn't have the manpower to stop the Chargers. San Diego in the Super Bowl.


Finally, The Super Bowl

SEATTLE SEAHAWKS VERSUS SAN DIEGO CHARGERS

This is the match up of the last two MVPs. Seattle will once again fall one victory shy of the promised land. With no John Elway standing in his way, Marty Scottenheimer will finally win the big one and be the feel good story of the year. San Diego Chargers: Super Bowl XLI Champs.

NFL Playoffs 2007: Wild Card Weekend – A Guide to Getting Paid.

Photo Credit: SI.com

So my boy Rhino posted his take on the College Bowl scene. It’s his game, and I’m not really one to comment on it. While I enjoy NCAA Football, mostly because of the sweet tailgating experience and the plethora of extremely attractive coeds, I’m not a freak, or at least a freak in the sense that Rhino is.

I prefer the NFL. And because of that preference, I also prefer to GAMBLE on the NFL. I stay away from betting on college sports in general, for reasons I care not to divulge here. Let’s just say you stick with what you know.

That said, here’s my breakdown of the first round, aka Wild Card Weekend.

KC Chiefs @ Indy Colts (LINE: Colts -7, o/u51)

I’ve heard a lot of people who claim to know football to say this one is a lock. That Archie’s #1 son will tear through the Chiefs questionable defense. But the problem I see here is that his time on the field is going to be limited. Let’s face it, William “The Refrigerator” Perry could rush for 150 yards against the Colts. And the Chiefs happen to have a RB who’s slightly better…Larry Johnson. Look for Johnson to carry the ball upwards of 40 times, eating the clock and keeping Manning on the sidelines. Better yet, when KC gets the lead, Payton will start to make some bad decisions and will look more like Eli. Not only does KC COVER, they win outright.

KC+7

Dallas Cowboys @ Seattle Seahawks (LINE: Seahawks-3, o/u46.5)

This one will go down as “The Romo Game.” I say that because I strongly think that Dallas QB Tony Romo will make Sexy Rex Grossman look like Joe Namath. In his first playoff game, look for Romo to turn the ball over early and often. Seattle’s got more experience in key positions and a coach who doesn’t have the body of Patrick from Sponge Bob. Seattle will win at home and send the Tuna packing.

SEAHAWKS -3

NY Jets @ NE Patriots (LINE: Patriots -9, o/u37.5)

Hate to say it, but you’ve got to go with Brady. The kid has proven himself time & time again in the playoffs, and will do it again this year taking his team deep. After an embarrassing shut out loss to Miami, Brady has led the Pats to three straight wins, posting 40 points twice. He’s coming into this game with a hot hand, and will guide his team to another playoff win.

PATS -9

NY Giants @ Philly Eagles (LINE: -6.5 o/u46.5)

Philadelphia’s hot, winning 5 straight to close out the season. The Giants are coming off a big win vs. Washington that they desperately needed after two ugly losses, one of which came at the hands of Philly. The difference maker in this game: Eli Manning. He will continue to shit the bed when it comes to pressure situations. Both of Archie’s boys will be out of the payoffs in round one. Philly. BIG.

Eagles -6.5