NFL Playoffs 2007 – ROUND TWO – A Guide to Getting Paid

"It can be argued that man's instinct to gamble is the only reason he is still not a monkey up in the trees." -Mario Puzo



















I think I should change the title. After my Wild Card Weekend Picks, I’m not even sure I’m qualified to be writing another piece about NFL Wagering. After last week’s shellacking, here’s where I stand with the “hypothetical” $1,000 bank roll I started with.

$200 Kansas City +7 RESULT -$220
$100 Seattle -2 RESULT -$110
$200 Patriots -9 RESULT +$200
$100 Eagles -6.5 RESULT -$110

As you can see, I went 1 for 4 in the first weekend. As it stands, if these were “real” wagers, I’d be down $240 right now, or roughly 25% of my starting stake. That, boys and girls, is why we don’t gamble. Got it…gambling is BAD.

But just in case you're interseted, here's what I’m looking at this weekend:

Seattle @ Chicago (LINE: Chicago -8.5 o/u 37)

We all know about the Bears. Dennis Green “crowned their asses.” Rex Grossman (3,193yds, 23 TD, 20 INTS) started off like an MVP Candidate and then quickly fizzled out. His play has been a rollercoaster this season (He had a handful of games with a QB rating over 100. AND a couple in which he managed to post a goose egg. Yup, a QB rating of ZERO.) and the well pub’d Bear’s Defense has quickly become porous, giving up 300 yards of total offense to power houses in Tampa, Detroit, and Green Bay. The #1 seed in the WEAKER conference has many unanswered questions.

In the same breath, Seattle didn’t beat on Romo’s Cowboys the way I had expected. Hell, if Romo wouldn't have mistaken the football for a LaBamba's Burrito, Seattle most likely would be sitting at home this week. But these 'Hawks are an improved team compared to the Seahawks that the Bears beat 37-6 in the fourth game of the season.

Had this spread not been -8.5, it would have been a tough one to pick. The actual WINNER still is a tough call, depending on which Grossman shows up to the game. But we could give two shits about who wins the game. We’re interested in WHO COVERS. After all, Money makes the world go ‘round. Seattle covers the 8.5, but I’m not going to try and pick a winner in this one, too many variables.
Parlay Special!
SEATTLE +8.5, OVER 37

Indy @ Baltimore (LINE: Baltimore -4 o/u 41)

The Ravens are simply too good. Yes, the Colts stepped up and shut down Larry Johnson last week. They looked like a team who found their defense. But what happened to Payton Manning? Three interceptions and only one TD? If the Chiefs could have mustered any sign of offence, the Colts would be making Tee times this weekend.

I hate to do it again, but we all know Payton Manning folds under pressure. Add to that being on the road, and this one’s in the bag.
BALTIMORE -4

Philly @ New Orleans (LINE: Saints -6 o/u 48)

This one’s a tough one to call, straight up anyways. Philly’s won six straight heading into this game. They seem to be a force to be reckoned with in the NFC. And all of this takes place AFTER Donovan McNabb goes down? Suspect. The Eagles are coming off a first round win over the NY Giants.

The Saints have been an offensive force all season. QB Drew Brees has thrown for 4,818 yds, 26TD and 13 INTS. They had a buy in the first round so have been sitting idle since their regular season finale, a loss to Carolina. (Don’t panic about the loss. The Saints couldn’t improve their playoff situation and benched many starters before half time.)

DIFFRENCE MAKER: Eagles Pro Bowl CB Lito Sheppard will miss this game with a dislocated elbow.
Parlay Special! Remember, we’re down $240 from week one. Only way to make it back: CHASE THE LOSS!!!
SAINTS -6, OVER 48

New England @ San Diego (LINE: Chargers-4.5 o/u 46.5)

I’d love to pick the Tom & Bill show again this week. After the ass raping they posted on their old buddy Mangina by kicking the living shit out of the Goddamn Jets, I’d love to keep riding them into the sunset. They have every last facet of the game down. There’s no reason they shouldn’t win every game in the playoffs. It’s just what they do.

But they’re playing San Diego and LT. In his house.

There’s not much to say about San Diego. They haven’t lost a football game since Week 7. They’ve been playing just about as good as any team can play. Tomlinson is running like a well oiled machine. Their defense is mauling people. What’s not to like about the Chargers?

A ROOKIE Quarterback. Even better, a rookie QB who sprained a foot in on December 31st. If the Pat’s D can get at Rivers and knock him out of this game, things may get interesting. That said…

PATRIOTS +4.5

Beginning Poker Tips

So you've caught the poker bug, huh? People all over the world have, and with limitations being placed on online gambling sites, more and more people are leaning toward regular home games to fulfill their Texas Hold 'Em fix. The problem is, not many people know the basic tenets of Texas Hold' Em strategy. In this article, we'll cover some of the more common mistakes new players make, and provide some fundamental tips that will help you from ending up on the rail long before you finish in the money.


Common Poker Mistake #1 - Cards down, boot up.

Novice players are easy to spot. Just look for the dum-dums calling bets off to the river and getting nickel-and-dimed into bankruptcy. I love seeing those guys at the table...they may as well be putting their money right into my pocket. Those with little experience play medium and weak hands WAY too liberally, and even if they have decent cards they either overbet or slowplay to the river. Do yourself a favor...log on to a free poker Website and play one hundred hands. Keep a tally of how many times you take down a pot and divide that into 100. In your next 100 hands, only play these starting hands: AA, AK, AQ, AJ, A10, KK, KQ, KJ, K10, QQ, QJ, Q10, JJ, J10 and 10/10. Keep a tally of how many times you take down a pot and divide that into 100. Chances are, you'll be winning about four times as often simply using these 15 major starting hands. Of course, more experienced players can play any cards depending on the circumstances, but I'm pretty sure the headline reads "Beginning Poker Tips," not "Doyle Brunson's Super System."

Common Poker Mistake #2 - The Rookie Bluff

So you've seen a cool movie where a level-headed protagonist outdoes an evil-doer card-shark at the felt and thought, "I wanna do that!" Hell, we all have put ourselves in that position. But ask yourself one question before you go all in on your unsuited numbers...do you actually know when to bluff? There are a few dozen situations in poker when more experienced players will rely on the bluff to swing the momentum their way, and an equal amount of bluffing techniques that players can use in particularly tough spots. If you don't understand why it's a bad play to bluff someone on a short stack with four people calling to the river while you're out of position, then don't pretend to know how to make that bluff and get caught pushing in like a fish.

Common Poker Mistake #3 - Playing Weak Hands in Early Position

I just mentioned player position above, and here's what I mean. Let's say you're in a game with eight other players, and you're first to bet before the flop with As 7h. You think your ace might be good, but aren't sure, so you call the blinds and reraise twice the size of the pot. Immediately, the odds are stacked against you. There are now seven players following you who know your hand is weak because of your half-hearted attempt at staying in the pot. Anyone with a medium pair, suited connectors or a stay-card and high kicker would be quick to reraise you. Even if your Ace is still high, that unsuited seven kicker won't look too hot anymore if two people call you to the flop and there's a reraise on the board -- and since you've just been scared off by the heavy action, you've given up your raise -- the equivalent of a big and small blind later on. Players in early position must play tighter. Only when when you have late position can you afford to play weaker hands because you've then gathered information from all the other player's actions.

Common Poker Mistake #4 - Not Knowing Pot Odds or Catch Percentages (i.e. Welcome to math class, dunderhead)

Need help to make your hand? How much help? Knowing the pot odds will help you get out of risky draws, allowing you to keep your chip stack safe until you own the nuts later on.
With the small blind at $10, and your $20 reraise on the button met by the small and big blinds, there's $120 in the pot and you have Kc 10c in the hole. The board kicks out Jc Ad 3c. You've already got four cards to the flush and four to the straight. Since there are 4 clubs out, the 9 clubs in the deck can help you make your flush. In addition, four queens are available that can help you make your straight. Since one of the four Queens has already been counted in your outs for the flush, there are 12 cards in the deck that can help you make your hand. And remember, since your opponents cards are unknown, they don't detract from your chances of pulling one of those 12 cards on the flop or river. Since you have two cards in your hand, and there are three upcards on the table, 5 cards (whose values are all known) can be mathematically eliminated from the deck. So, from a 52-card deck, you know the value of 5 cards. (52-5=47). That means you have 12 out of 47 chances to make your hand (roughly 25%). If the next raise is equal to or less than 25% of the total pot after people bet in ($120 pot + $20 bets from each blind before you = $160 -- less the $40 you've put in already before you match the new raise (=$120) --; your $20 call makes your pot odds 1:6. Would you be willing to make six times your $20 call 25% of the time? Statistically, you will earn six times the amount of your call by winning the hand 1 out of every 4 plays...and that's great for your wallet.

Reasoning: Let's say you lose the hand 75% of the time, or 3 out of 4 times. That means you lost $60 calling that $20 bet three times. Now the statistical fourth time comes your way. You make the $20 call and -- assuming no one bets again on the flop or river to make the math easier -- you've just won a $180 pot (less the $60 you've contributed) giving you a $120 profit (six times the amount of your $20 "investment." So over the course of four hands, you're ahead $60. That's pot odds.

Pot odds can help you decide if you should call to see the next card on the board. It's hard to grasp at first, but the more you play, the quicker the math will come, and the fatter your wallet will get. Remember, the best players are the ones that don't get too attached to a hand, and can lay their cards down if the situation is unfavorable. You can't lose money you don't bet.

These are just some basic tips from a casual weekend player to help your game and to separate you from the monkeys. Good luck, and check for more installments of poker advice in the future.

JUICED

Universal Medical Systems, a company that specializes in computer imaging, released a report this week claiming that baseballs used in the 1998 season had enlarged rubber cores and synthetic rubber rings. UMS, along with a little help from two doctors from The Center for Quantitative Imaging at Penn State, analyzed advanced computer imagery of baseballs from the ’98 season.

Universal Medical Systems President David Zavango has offered the sporting world this tidbit: A record breaking home run ball that season was tampered with.



“Examining the CT images of Mark McGwire’s 70th home run ball one can clearly see the synthetic ring around the core, or ‘pill’, of the baseball. While Mark McGuire may or may not have used illegal steroids, the evidence shows his ball, under the governing body of the league, was juiced.”

MLB officials, in an attempt to cover their asses, have tried to explain UMS’s findings, stating the rubber ring is really a cardboard washer. They have also rushed to the defense of Rawlings, the supplier of MLB baseballs since 1977, explaining the quality control procedure and insisting no changes have been made to the core of the ball since Rawlings starting supplying them.

I cannot figure out why this story isn’t getting any press.

Could it be the powers that be want to hide this as best as possible? It’s quite obvious that after the strike of ’94 MLB wanted fans to return to the game. After all, baseball is America’s past time. And remember, baseball is a business and the idea of owning and operating a business is to MAKE MONEY. It’s estimated that the strike cost owners and players a combined total of over $800,000,000.

Is it possible that, in an attempt to spark interest for the game, the honchos buried their heads in the sand when they heard rumblings of steroid use? That they even introduced a juiced ball into the game in an effort to keep fans interested? That they knew big home runs would put asses in seats?

Most definitely.

A Picture is Worth A Thousand Words

I think this sums up Sexy Rexy's play this season.

Grossman offered this to Reporters today:

"In this league, especially at this position, you have to bring it every single week, no matter what. And the situation was I felt like I was going to play about a half, and it was the last game, it was New Year's Eve. There were so many other factors that brought my focus away from what is actually important, and that's something that I am never going to do again. There is too much I am responsible for to not give it 100 percent during the week and just the full attention. It's another lesson."

Well, here's another lesson, Rexy. Fall to your hands and knees in front of a large angry black man -- and you're bound to get FUCKED.

The "Don't Bet on This" Playoff Preview

Ahhh the NFL Playoffs. I love it! Enough of the political tomfoolery that is known as the BCS, time for some real football! I know that Big Willie already posted his first round predictions while playing the spread but I'd like to do mine March Madness style and pick my winners all the way through right now. And, since I am sure to be wrong on most of these (although if I am right you will hear me gloat) I will not play the spread since I don't like to gamble on football that much. So, here we go:

DALLAS COWBOYS AT SEATTLE SEAHAWKS

First off let me state how pitiful the NFC is. That fact cannot be overstated. Seattle has quietly come into the playoffs, while RomoMania has cooled off in the last few weeks (let me go on record as saying that I personally believe Romo had a few good weeks that made his head big but now its time to come back to earth and play like the no-name QB he really is but like I said, 99.9% of my predictions are usually wrong). Bill Parcells, FUPA and all, has lost control. Its not his fault. The blame is solely on owner Jerry Jones. He basically forced Parcells to have T.O. and lets face it, nobody can control his pompous ass. But I digress. Seattle is finally back at full strength and they are playing at home. I'm taking Seattle in a blowout.


NEW YORK GIANTS AT PHILADELPHIA EAGLES

Gotta hand it to Andy Reid, he's a hell of a coach. Just a month and a half ago everyone was saying the Giants were the team in the NFC. Then it was Dallas. Well, the Eagles emerged from that division the victors, winning 5 straight and rolling into the playoffs with momentum, and they did it without their star QB. On the other hand, the Giants have looked just awful. Their lone bright spot has been Tiki Barber. Eli Manning (a major pussy) has been getting bashed in the media, and rightfully so. I am actually surprised Daddy hasn't come to his defense and demand the newspapers quit picking on his baby. Well, once again Barber will be the lone bright spot (maybe some Brandon Jacobs action too, since him and I are alumni of the same school), Eli Manning will suck hippo cock, Shockey will blame the coaching staff, Coughlin will blame Eli, Strahan will blame Plaxico, Plaxico will say "I don't give a shit what that gap-toothed fat fuck thinks, now let me smoke this spliff in peace", Pappa Manning will defend Eli, Coughlin will choke Pappa Manning ala Latrell Sprewell, the Giants will lose and Coughlin will get fired.

















"Stop picking on my baby boy! He's very
sensitive! You're hurting his feelings!"


NEW YORK JETS AT NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS

Bill Belichick feels he was betrayed by Eric Mangini and feels Mangini is being a baby. Belichick has actually acted like a baby after a regular season loss to the Jets. Conventional wisdom would say Brady + Belichick + home field + playing the goddamn Jets = easy New England victory. I say otherwise. Now, this is mostly on sheer gut feeling, but I think the Jets will be the surprise team of the playoffs. The major X factor here is Belichick's cockyness. He had won so many times with interchangeable parts that he told Dieon Branch, New England's only real receiver, to get the fuck outta town. Mangini has proven he can coach, and I think he will have a defensive scheme that will contain Brady. If the Jets can stop Lawrence Maroney, which is no easy task, they will squeak by the Pats. Now let the barrage of emails calling me a complete moron begin. I won't blame you.


KANSAS CITY CHIEFS AT INDIANAPOLIS COLTS

This may be the easiest game to predict. The Colts have no defense. The Chiefs have a helluva offensive weapon in Larry Johnson (by the way, just to show you I do admit when I am wrong, I predicted that the Chiefs would have O Line problems this year and LJ would be a flop. Boy do I have egg on my face!). The Colts window of opportunity has officially shut. Plus, Peyton Manning has proven time and time again that when it comes to the postseason he is useless (I hope Pappa Manning doesn't demand I take that statement back). I'm taking the Chiefs in a landslide.


This all brings us to the Division Round:

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES AT NEW ORLEANS SAINTS

Let me say that although Nick Saban is getting bashed for taking Duante Culpepper instead of Drew Brees, lets be real. Both QBs were injured last year and it was a crap shoot. That all being said, Brees is a stud. Personally, I think he should have won the MVP, or at least Co-MVP (I'm sure I will get another barrage of emails but let me say that LT is my favorite current player in the NFL and the above statement is not taking anything away from him, I just feel the Saints would be a 4 win team without Brees, whereas the Chargers would be above .500 without LT). This game is where the Eagles run out of gas. The Saints offense is too potent, especially at home on turf. Saints in a barn burner.


SEATTLE SEAHAWKS AT CHICAGO BEARS

Da Bearss! Da Bearss!! Polish Sausage, Ditka, Bearss.....Enough of my dreaming. This is definitely the hardest game for me to predict. Good Rex = Bears Blowout, Bad Rex = Bears loss. Which one will show up? And what about that banged up defense? And have we seen enough of the Seahawks at full strength this year to fairly assess them? ARRGH!!! Well, I'm a lifelong Bears fan, so I'm pretty accustomed to disappointment. God, I really hope I am wrong on this one, but I'm predicting Bad Rex comes to play and brings his 1.3 or lower passer rating with him and sends the Seahawks to victory.


NEW YORK JETS AT BALTIMORE RAVENS

The Ravens are another one of those teams nobody talks about. Their defense is stellar as usual, and their offense is improved thanks to them actually having a QB for once. That's about all the commentary I have on them. Brian Billick thinks he is a genius, Eric Mangini could be a genius. Gut feeling here again, I'm taking the Jets in an upset.


KANSAS CITY CHIEFS AT SAN DIEGO CHARGERS

San Diego Chargers, featuring league MVP LT. Kansas City Chiefs featuring the game's second best RB LT. Wow. What a game this will be. San Diego is the toast of the NFL. The Chiefs defense is improved this year, but they are not as good as the Chargers' defense. LT will have 5 TDs and the Chargers will roll to victory.


Now for the Conference Championships:

SEATTLE SEAHAWKS AT NEW ORLEANS SAINTS

Once again, who the hell knows what we will see from Seattle. The potent Saints offense will once again be at home on turf, but Shaun Alexander will also benefit from playing on turf, and Seattle also has a good defense. The Saints have virtually no defense. I'm going with big game coaching experience on this one and giving the nod to Mike Holmgren and the Seahawks. Repeat NFC Champs.


NEW YORK JETS AT SAN DIEGO CHARGERS

It's time for Schottenheimer to finally make it to the big game. Mangini may be a genius, but this Jets team just doesn't have the manpower to stop the Chargers. San Diego in the Super Bowl.


Finally, The Super Bowl

SEATTLE SEAHAWKS VERSUS SAN DIEGO CHARGERS

This is the match up of the last two MVPs. Seattle will once again fall one victory shy of the promised land. With no John Elway standing in his way, Marty Scottenheimer will finally win the big one and be the feel good story of the year. San Diego Chargers: Super Bowl XLI Champs.