Tuesday, January 16, 2007

Seldom Earning Championships? No more bad acronyms for the SEC.

The Big Ten has some
big shoes to fill
to keep up with
the dominating SEC.

It’s been a long time coming, but I needed to dwell upon this rumination for a while before I made it official. I watched the highlights of the national championship game again and again, and it saddens this Big Ten fan to admit the following:

The SEC is currently the best football conference in NCAA D-I.

My favorite college football stats site, cfbdatawarehouse.com, has an interesting all-time conference rankings page, subdivided into conference leaders by total points made up of winning percentage points, schedule points, national championship points, and Big 4 Bowl points. Here’s how the two conferences fare:

Winning Percentage Points: SEC (589.27); B10 (574.68)
Schedule Points: B10 (707.93); SEC (676.16)
National Championship Points: B10 (1350.00); SEC (1150.00)
Big 4 Bowl Points: SEC (1570.00); B10 (1095.00)

Total Points: SEC (3,985.44); B10 (3,727.61)

Here’s what those numbers tell me:

The SEC is slowly creeping up in schedule points year after year, because the Big 10 is primarily a fight between Michigan and Ohio State (and occasionally Penn State) every year. The SEC has mad team talent year after year, and it’s beginning to show in these point totals.

The Big Ten is naturally going to lead the SEC in National Championship points. Why, you ask? For the same reason that the Ivy League’s win percentage skyrockets above both the SEC and the Big 10: They’ve been around the longest. Though it helps my Big 10 argument, it’s undoubtedly a skewed stat.

Big 4 Bowl Points are an interesting category. The SEC leads that by a wide margin…so the argument could be made that the Big 10 teams just muscle eachother around every year because each team is overloaded with talent. The truth came out after the major bowl games this year, though. Year after year, the Big Ten seems to get dominated by other conferences in post-season, high-level bowl games. Teams like Michigan and Ohio State can toot their own horns all they want before December, but the perennial conference powerhouses can’t seem to consistently get the job done against the better teams from other conferences.

A long time ago, I quipped to a colleague that the SEC stood for Seldom Earning Championships. The conference is quickly stepping up…Tennessee’s on the rise again (though they didn’t beat my Lions this year…YES!), Florida seems to be consistently in the mix, and LSU and Auburn are always contenders. Now that Nick Saban’s about to bring his leftover Louisiana mojo to Tuscaloosa, things are continuing to shape up quite nicely for the SEC.

No matter what the polls say at the end of the year, I have to gauge how good a team is by how they’d match up against the country’s other great teams. After seeing Michigan and Ohio State get licked by the USC and Florida, respectively, I’ll need to see some bowl wins from these corn-eating Midwesterners before the Big Ten can be considered the top conference in the land.

It’s hard to say at this point that the Buckeyes would have had a chance against JaMarcus Russel’s LSU offense or Auburn’s “We work harder than you” mentality. It’s even harder to say that Michigan could have countered either one of those teams or the national champion Gators.

It’s time for the Big Ten to step up their game if they want to stay in the NCAA D-I race.

NFL Playoffs 2007 –Conference Championships– A Guide to Getting Paid

"The subject of gambling is all encompassing. It combines man's natural play instinct with his desire to know about his fate and his future." - Franz Rosenthal


Well, 1 for 4 on Wild Card Weekend left me $240 in the hole. I was sure I had week two in the bag.

I went 2-2. I’ll take it. Thanks to a parlay, I’m back in the saddle.

$100 Seattle +8.5, Over 37 (Parlay) RESULT +$270
$100 Baltimore -4 RESULT -$110
$100 Saints -6, Over 48 (Parlay) RESULT -$110
$100 Patriots +4.5 RESULT +$100

So after the second playoff weekend, I find myself with $910 of my starting $1000 bank roll. Not too bad. I had some action, just missed a few bets.

Now we’re down to the Championship round. This is where we separate the men from the boys. Where we start making some real money.

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS @ CHICAGO BEARS (BEARS -1, o/u 43)

There’s a lot to be said about the Bears. As a team, they show flashes of potential that suggest they can win it all. Yes, there are holes in the secondary. Yes, the defensive line has a few injuries. Yes, they couldn’t HOLD the lead last weekend. Yes, Rex Grossman’s decision making has been poor at times.

But they keep winning. The Bears manage to make a big play when it’s needed. This team’s got heart. They’re pesky, refusing to go away when they’re at their lowest point.

Add to that home field advantage. Yes, we’ve all heard about the weather factor, that New Orleans is going to shiver to death on the sidelines and we’ll win the game by default. I’ve stated my case on that subject, you all know where I stand. It’s going make a difference, but not enough to swing the game.

This game is going to come down to a few simple factors. The Bears defense HAS to stop Deuce AND get pressure on Drew Brees. If New Orleans can get their run game going and start to set up the passing game, look out.

On offense, the Bears need to hold onto the ball for as long as possible to keep Brees & Co. off the field. That means a steady dose of Jones and Benson. Yes, BOTH OF THEM.

It’s also known that the Saint’s secondary is shaky. By getting the run established early, Rex (The Sex Machine) Grossman will be able to take a few shots deep down field.

*STATS of INTEREST* – The Saints had the second lowest number of takeaways in the NFL during the regular season, 19.

Five of the last SEVEN #1 NFC Seeds made it to the Super Bowl.

I think the Bears will get the lead early and hold on for the win.

Chicago -1, OVER 43

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS @ INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (COLTS -3, o/u 47.5)

Haven’t we seen this whole song and dance before?

One thing to say: Four Super Bowl appearances in the last Six Years.

While Brady and the Pat’s were given the opportunity to stay in the game last week vs. the Chargers, I’m not so sure they’ll have that chance this weekend.

The Colt’s defense is playing much, much better than they have in past years. They’ve only allowed 14 points TOTAL in the first to playoff games. But in the same breath, the offense of KC and Baltimore looked like shit in both games. This go ‘round, they’ll face Brady.

Brady, who looked off his game last week in San Diego, will be ready this week. For one, it’s going to be played in Indy, which means DOME. I’m sure the Pat’s will enjoy the controlled environment as opposed to the blowing snow and frigid temps at the ‘Fox. And based on past years that the Patriots have walked over Indy to get to the Super Bowl, I’m going to go out on a limb and say Brady loves making Peyton his bitch.

Peyton Manning has been off his game in a big way. He’s thrown 1 TD and 5 INT’s in the first two games. If this pattern continues, he’ll be able to watch the Super Bowl at home with Eli and Archie.

I’ve said it for two straight weeks. This week it’s going to happen. Brady will send Peyton packing.

New England +3, UNDER 47.5

Monday, January 15, 2007

Playoff musings

We all know that my original playoff predictions are fucked, but thats ok. I'd like to give my personal view of the playoff thusfar.

First, lets look at the AFC. Now, everyone knows that I hate the Manning family, but I was actually glad to see the Colts advance this weekend. Why you may ask? Well, first off I have so much respect for Marvin Harrison and Tony Dungy that my feelings for Peyton can be set aside. Second, I HATE the Ravens. They are boring to watch, always have been always will be. I absolutely HATE Brian Billick. I hate him more than all the Mannings combined. He might be the second cockiest SOB in football. I remember (or barely remember, depending how you want to look at it) one "hazy" night in college watching the Game Show Network in a vegetative state and an old episode of Match Game was on. We were all commenting on how cocky the strapping young lad who was that night's contestant was. Turns out it was a young Brian Billick, and he was a prick then. But I digress. Any time I see this man lose is a good day for me.

Next there are the Patriots. They played horrible, yet beat my Super Bowl pick, the San Diego Chargers. This disappointed me because I love LT and Schottenheimer. I think they are two of the classiest individuals in sports. This also made me sad because the only man in football I hate more than Billick is Bill Belichick. I can't believe the NFL lets him dress like someone who just climbed out of a cardboard box on Crenshaw Ave. Plus he is cocky too. Now, I'll admit he's a hell of a coach, possibly the best x's and o's guy the NFL has ever seen. But I have noticed that he is one hell of a crybaby too. Mangini didn't obey King Bill and Belichick tries to make him to be a prick. I'm sure a lot of you heard LT's postgame comments and although it does sound like sour grapes, there is an element of truth to what he said. The Patriots acted like assholes after the game and they are truly a reflection of their coach. I really hope Indy kicks the shit out of them. And if Indy does win, I'm sure King Bill's true colors will come out.


Now the NFC. Congrats to the Saints. They have been exciting to watch all season long and will definately give the Bears a challenge, but I don't think they will win.

I need to totally disagree with the article below. Although I think that people who believe in "Bear Weather" are complete dopes, I do believe that the Bears have a weather advantage in this game. The Saints high powered offense is reminiscent of the 1999 Rams, and by that I mean they are much better indoors than they are in the elements. If the Bears were playing a team that played outdoors, even if it was a warm weather team, I would agree that weather would have no affect on this game. But I do strongly think that an outdoor team has a large advantage over a dome team in the middle of winter. If good Rex shows up (don't blame him for that interception that was Muhammed's fault. I'm sure Muhsin will find some way to blame Orton for his bad play.) the Bears should have no problem advancing to the Super Bowl.

On a personal note, I've been asked many times in my life who my favorite sports team is, and it has always been a toss-up between the Bears and the White Sox. Well, now I know who my true love is. In 2005 time seemed to stand still in October. The greatest feeling in my life was seeing that final out after 27 years of being a Sox fan. The whole playoffs, it was a dream. And although I pray the Bears actually pull the whole thing out of their ass and bring the Lombardi trophy back to Chicago after 21 years, this whole run will be a distant second to the 2005 MLB playoffs.

Sunday, January 14, 2007

Sunday Night Play Off Report.

What I learned today...

Chicago 27 - Seattle 24

First off, I hit my Parlay. That helps.

Rex Grossman (282 yards, 75.9 Passer Rating, 1 TD, 1 INT, 1 Fumble) played good enough to win. He still threw a number of passes behind his receivers. And he still shits his pants when he's under pressure. The coaching staff needs to explain to him that sometimes it's ok to take a sack. But all in all, he played a decent game.




















The Bears Defense steps up to make big plays. While their secondary is shaky (Charles Tilman, I'm talking to you) they answered the bell on numerous occasions and kept their team in the game.

Matt Hasselbeck had a tough game. His offensive line didn't help him all that much. He found himself scraping his ass off the turf early and often.

The Bears have awesome fans....check out this guy...he lives in my town...




















That's a FAN!

Next week the Saints come to town. I've already read morons talking about "Bear Weather" and that the concept Saints won't be able to play in the cold. I hate that thought fucking thought process. Regardless of the goddamn weather, this NFC Championship game is going to be a good one.

New England 24 - San Diego 21

Again, I hit my bet. Two for two on Sunday. Added bonus: Patriots won outright.

Tom Brady and Bill Belichick are a tough pair to beat when the play offs roll around.

Brady (57.6 Passer Rating, 2 TD's, 3 INT) was shaky. He looked out of rhythm on more than one occasion. But he persevered and they came out on top.

The Pat's Defense is for real.

The league MVP can tackle a man by the face mask and the ref's will pick up the flag.


















Phillip Rivers (55.5 Passer Rating, 0 TD's, 1 INT, 1 Fumble) showed he was a rookie.

A 54 yard field goal is a long ass kick.


















Marty Schottenheimer can't win a play off game to save his ass. If he doesn't lose his job I'll be surprised. Nine Pro Bowlers,League MVP, and home field advantage and they can't advance?

Now the Patriots get to take out Peyton and the Colts. Yes, I said take out. Third time's a charm, right?

Saturday, January 13, 2007

Saturday Night Play Off Report

What we learned today...

COLTS 15 - Ravens 6

The Ravens offense sucks. Actually, it can't suck. It's fucking non-existent. Steve McNair needs to retire.

They can't win a field goal race either. With that defense, they shouldn't lose a game. But ya can't win if ya can't score.

The Colt's Defense may not be as bad as we all thought. Granted, they had little to worry about today.

Peyton Manning is as bad in the post season as we all thought. His team won another game, IN SPITE of him.


















Peyton's fore head is growing at an increasingly alarming rate.

So next week we get to see if the Colts can do it again, this time against a team that can score. I picked that prick Manning to lose twice in two weeks and he's proved me wrong both times.

I hate being wrong, but I'm a pig headed gut. I'm going to make the early prediction that the Colts will lose in the AFC Championship game against the Chargers or Patriots.

But for now, we have this moment to remember...or make us sick...















After Saturday's win over the Ravens, Archie Manning
embraced his oldest son and proclaimed, "At least you're
not the fucking failure your little brother is."

I hate you Peyton.

New Orleans - Philly

This game's in progress. I will make a few observations and be back with more tomorrow..

Andy Reid needs to pass a few buffet lines. The guys' pushing maximum density. His Defense came out hitting.

The Saints have too many weapons. They've got to be the clear favorite to come out of the NFC and head to the Super Bowl.

And it's good to see that New Orleans is back to normal after Katrina. Even the young, white, blonde hooker population has returned.



Wonder if Fox will see a fine from the FCC for broadcasting this image? After all, she's got the word FUCK on her shirt. They should be happy she wasn't actually doing said activity in the stands....


More tomorrow..