Tuesday, January 16, 2007

NFL Playoffs 2007 –Conference Championships– A Guide to Getting Paid

"The subject of gambling is all encompassing. It combines man's natural play instinct with his desire to know about his fate and his future." - Franz Rosenthal


Well, 1 for 4 on Wild Card Weekend left me $240 in the hole. I was sure I had week two in the bag.

I went 2-2. I’ll take it. Thanks to a parlay, I’m back in the saddle.

$100 Seattle +8.5, Over 37 (Parlay) RESULT +$270
$100 Baltimore -4 RESULT -$110
$100 Saints -6, Over 48 (Parlay) RESULT -$110
$100 Patriots +4.5 RESULT +$100

So after the second playoff weekend, I find myself with $910 of my starting $1000 bank roll. Not too bad. I had some action, just missed a few bets.

Now we’re down to the Championship round. This is where we separate the men from the boys. Where we start making some real money.

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS @ CHICAGO BEARS (BEARS -1, o/u 43)

There’s a lot to be said about the Bears. As a team, they show flashes of potential that suggest they can win it all. Yes, there are holes in the secondary. Yes, the defensive line has a few injuries. Yes, they couldn’t HOLD the lead last weekend. Yes, Rex Grossman’s decision making has been poor at times.

But they keep winning. The Bears manage to make a big play when it’s needed. This team’s got heart. They’re pesky, refusing to go away when they’re at their lowest point.

Add to that home field advantage. Yes, we’ve all heard about the weather factor, that New Orleans is going to shiver to death on the sidelines and we’ll win the game by default. I’ve stated my case on that subject, you all know where I stand. It’s going make a difference, but not enough to swing the game.

This game is going to come down to a few simple factors. The Bears defense HAS to stop Deuce AND get pressure on Drew Brees. If New Orleans can get their run game going and start to set up the passing game, look out.

On offense, the Bears need to hold onto the ball for as long as possible to keep Brees & Co. off the field. That means a steady dose of Jones and Benson. Yes, BOTH OF THEM.

It’s also known that the Saint’s secondary is shaky. By getting the run established early, Rex (The Sex Machine) Grossman will be able to take a few shots deep down field.

*STATS of INTEREST* – The Saints had the second lowest number of takeaways in the NFL during the regular season, 19.

Five of the last SEVEN #1 NFC Seeds made it to the Super Bowl.

I think the Bears will get the lead early and hold on for the win.

Chicago -1, OVER 43

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS @ INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (COLTS -3, o/u 47.5)

Haven’t we seen this whole song and dance before?

One thing to say: Four Super Bowl appearances in the last Six Years.

While Brady and the Pat’s were given the opportunity to stay in the game last week vs. the Chargers, I’m not so sure they’ll have that chance this weekend.

The Colt’s defense is playing much, much better than they have in past years. They’ve only allowed 14 points TOTAL in the first to playoff games. But in the same breath, the offense of KC and Baltimore looked like shit in both games. This go ‘round, they’ll face Brady.

Brady, who looked off his game last week in San Diego, will be ready this week. For one, it’s going to be played in Indy, which means DOME. I’m sure the Pat’s will enjoy the controlled environment as opposed to the blowing snow and frigid temps at the ‘Fox. And based on past years that the Patriots have walked over Indy to get to the Super Bowl, I’m going to go out on a limb and say Brady loves making Peyton his bitch.

Peyton Manning has been off his game in a big way. He’s thrown 1 TD and 5 INT’s in the first two games. If this pattern continues, he’ll be able to watch the Super Bowl at home with Eli and Archie.

I’ve said it for two straight weeks. This week it’s going to happen. Brady will send Peyton packing.

New England +3, UNDER 47.5

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

gambling is baa-aad...