This is my time of the year. March Madness in December. The culmination of five months of observing, analyzing, and finger-pointing. My two-week personal Super Bowl: The college football bowl season. Let's jump right in.
I'm hosting an experiment this year. The experiment will serve to benchmark my devotion to NCAA pigskin, though it could come at a high cost -- proving that I am an idiot when it comes to MY SPORT -- college football.
I've filled out three separate College Bowl pools. Each pool was approached in a dynamic and strategic way. When the season is officially over, I will document the results. Here's the breakdown:
POOL #1
The smart, researched picks. These are based on the most recent point spreads as indicated by Vegas, and assigned points from smallest to largest based on which game had the smaller point spread. In theory, this is an untouchable pool, based solely on the opinions of the professionals in the business who know the sport the best.
21 DEC BYU vs. OREGON BYU 7 (+7)
27 DEC UCLA vs. FSU UCLA 10 (0)
28 DEC OKIE ST. vs. ALABAMA OKIEST 5 (+5)
28 DEC CAL vs. TAMU CAL 11 (+11)
29 DEC MISSOU vs. OREGON ST. OSU 8 (+8)
29 DEC TEXAS TECH vs. MINN TEXTECH 13 (+13)
29 DEC PURDUE vs. MARYLAND PURDUE 2 (0)
30 DEC NAVY vs. BC BC 12 (+12)
30 DEC IOWA vs. UTEX UTEX 18 (+18)
30 DEC UG vs VATECH VATECH 6 (0)
1 JAN PSU vs UTENN UTENN 9 (0) (YAY!)
1 JAN NEBRASKA vs. AUBURN AUBURN 4 (+4)
1 JAN GATECH vs. W.VIRG WVIR 20 (+20)
1 JAN WISCONSIN vs. ARKA ARKA 3 (+3)
1 JAN USC vs. MICHIGAN USC 1 (+1)
1 JAN BOISE ST. vs. OKIE OKIE 15 (0)
2 JAN WAKE vs. LOUISVILLE LOUIS 19 (+19)
3 JAN LSU vs. ND LSU 17 (+17)
6 JAN CINCY vs. W.MICH CINCY 16
8 JAN OHIO ST. vs. FLORIDA OSU 14
(+138 so far)
POOL #2
Rhino's intuitive picks. These selections and point assignments are based on what I've seen this year. In theory, the total points from this pool should be considerably less than the expert total in Pool #1.
21 DEC BYU vs. OREGON OREGON 13 (0)
27 DEC UCLA vs. FSU UCLA 14 (0)
28 DEC OKIE ST. vs. ALABAMA BAMA 10 (0)
28 DEC CAL vs. TAMU CAL 15 (+15)
29 DEC MISSOU vs. OREGON ST. OR. ST. 11 (+11)
29 DEC TEXAS TECH vs. MINN MINN. 12 (0)
29 DEC PURDUE vs. MARYLAND PURDUE 6 (0)
30 DEC NAVY vs. BC BC 20 (+20)
30 DEC IOWA vs. UTEX UTEX 16 (+16)
30 DEC UG vs VATECH UG 5 (+5)
1 JAN PSU vs UTENN TENN 4 (0) YAY!
1 JAN NEBRASKA vs. AUBURN AUBURN 17 (+17)
1 JAN GATECH vs. W.VIRG W.VIRG 8 (+8)
1 JAN WISCONSIN vs. ARK WISC 9 (+9)
1 JAN USC vs. MICHIGAN MICH 7 (0)
1 JAN BOISE ST. vs. OKIE BOIST. 1 (+1)
2 JAN WAKE vs. LOUISVILLE WAKE 2 (+2)
3 JAN LSU vs. ND LSU 18 (+18)
6 JAN CINCY vs. W.MICH W.MICH 3
8 JAN OHIO ST. vs. FLORIDA OSU 19
(+122 so far)
POOL #3
Rhino's random coin toss picks. Literally, the point assignments here were based on the outcome of a coin toss. I started with the earliest game, assigning more points to the following game. In theory, my ntuitive picks in Pool #2 should obliterate the total from this pool. I'd like to believe I'm smarter than an indiscriminatory silver 50-cent piece.
21 DEC BYU vs. OREGON BYU 1 (+1)
27 DEC UCLA vs. FSU UCLA 2 (0)
28 DEC OKIE ST. vs. ALABAMA BAMA 3 (0)
28 DEC CAL vs. TAMU TAMU 4 (0)
29 DEC MISSOU vs. OREGON ST. MISSOU 5 (0)
29 DEC TEXAS TECH vs. MINN MINN 6 (0)
29 DEC PURDUE vs. MARYLAND PURDUE 7 (0)
30 DEC NAVY vs. BC BC 8 (+8)
30 DEC IOWA vs. UTEX IOWA 9 (0)
30 DEC UG vs VATECH UG 10 (+10)
1 JAN PSU vs UTENN UTENN 11 (0)
1 JAN NEBRASKA vs. AUBURN NEB 12 (0)
1 JAN GATECH vs. W.VIR WVIR 13 (+13)
1 JAN WISCONSIN vs. ARKA WISC 14 (+14)
1 JAN USC vs. MICHIGAN USC 15 (+15)
1 JAN BOISE ST. vs. OKIE BOISE 16 (+16)
2 JAN WAKE vs. LOUISVILLE LOUIS 17 (+17)
3 JAN LSU vs. ND ND 18 (0)
6 JAN CINCY vs. W.MICH CINCY 19
8 JAN OHIO ST. vs. FLORIDA FLORIDA 20
(+94 so far)
The results will be forthcoming. I'll save you the breakdown of each individual game, but I'll share my insight into a few of the more prominent ones.
NEBRASKA vs. AUBURN
I had Auburn playing for the National Title this year. People keep talking about how strong the SEC is, and I can't take away from that, but here's the common oversight: Auburn beat Florida, the team playing the Buckeyes for the national title. The Tigers lost to two much weaker conference foes -- 10-3 Arkansas and 8-4 Georgia. If Auburn brings their A-game all season, they go to Glendale undefeated. Redemption for their two less-than-stellar conference performances will come at the Huskers expense.
NEBRASKA 17 AUBURN 33 (actual score: Neb 14 Aub 17) CORRECT!
WISCONSIN vs. ARKANSAS
Wisconsin has played a weak non-conference schedule, but that hasn't stopped them from losing only one game all year to the #3 Wolverines. I guess we'll actually see how tough the SEC is depending on how the 10-3 Razorbacks perform after they seemingly fell apart against Florida and LSU at season's end.
WISCONSIN 27 ARKANSAS 18 (actual score: Ark 14 Wisc 17) CORRECT!
USC vs. MICHIGAN
I thought Michigan would be the second team in the title game this year, but they fell just short of my prediction in Columbus this November. I was never supportive of a UM-OSU rematch -- as I see it UM had their chance and let it slip. I'm glad to see them going up against a 10-2 USC team, though. Pete Carrol will have his Trojans ready, but after losing AT Oregon State and AT UCLA, their trip out of L.A. to Pasadena for the Grandaddy game looks grim against the mighty Wolverine D.
USC 23 MICHIGAN 42 (actual score USC 32 Mich 18) INCORRECT!
LSU vs. ND
What can I say about ND? God only knows how they came back against Michigan State ealier this year, but the proof remains in the pudding. They've struggled against Georgia Tech and Michigan State, and lost big to Michigan and USC -- teams that a national-championship caliber team should be able to hang with. LSU's only losses came to Auburn and Florida, but their tougher regular season schedule will give them the upper hand against Weis and his size 68 Dockers.
LSU 27 ND 13 (actual score LSU 41 ND 14) CORRECT!
OHIO STATE vs. FLORIDA
Jim Tressel must be a postman in the off-season, because this guy delivers. Ohio State is the new perennial powerhouse of the Big Ten. I've doubted the Buckeyes abilities for the past three pre-seasons, but never again. They are consistent, and I'll only hand the reigns of the Big 10 back to Michigan if the Wolverines and Lloyd Carr can muster a win against Ye Olde Coach Sweatervest next season AND a better record. Florida's good, but in the second half of their Oct. 14 contest against Auburn, the Gators were snubbed by a stout Tigers D. If they couldn't move the ball against Auburn, I don't know how they'll do anything against a Buckeyes defense that allowed two touchdowns or less in 10 of their 12 regular season games. And next to offensive juggernauts Troy Smith, Antonio Pittman, Chris Wells, Ted Ginn and Anthony Gonzalez...Gators just don't look all that menacing.
OHIO STATE 38 FLORIDA 17
That's it for today kids.
Let's just hope I'm more knowledgable about college football than a circular piece of currency.
5 comments:
After one game, the coin is winning.
Outlook not good.
I know you're the College Football guy, whereas I pretty much could care less about it until they come up with some sort of tournament, but I've been wanting to ask you your thoughts on Wisconsin not getting a BCS bid versus ND landing one. Now, when I do actually watch college football I tend to root for ND, but I think its a complete sham that they get to play in a top game this year, whereas Wisconsin has 1 loss and doesn't get shit. Sure, Wisconsin had an easy nonconference schedule, but look at ND's schedule! The only really good opponents they had were Michigan and USC, and they both kicked the shit out of ND so bad that Brady Quinn's future grandchildren will feel the effects. Its situations like this that have me really wanting a playoff system, because I feel that there are too much politics involved in the system that is currently in use.
Two reasons:
1) Conference ties. Because OSU got a BCS national bid, the second best Big 10 team (Michigan) defaults to the Big Ten #1 slot and gets the conference's tied-in bid to the Rose Bowl. It's a tricky system, because only a non-national title contending #1 Big Ten team and a non-national title contending #1 PAC Ten team can play in the Rose Bowl. In fact, every BCS game has a similar "if available" conference clause--the Fiesta Bowl gets a non-national title contending Big 12 Champion, the Orange Bowl gets a non-national title contending ACC Champion, and the Sugar Bowl gets a non-national title contending SEC Champion. As a non-BCS bowl, the next tied-in Big Ten game is the Capitol One Bowl: SEC #2 vs. Big 10 #2 (this year, Arkansas and Wisconsin).
2) Money. The BCS selections are based on hat teams travel well and can generate the most income for the matchup, and each bowl tries its best to find a newsworthy angle to generate interest (like last year-s Bowden vs. Paterno Orange Bowl). Fact is, Notre Dame travels well. The Irish have a national audience based on history and legend, so their bowl games always draw a crowd. It's yet another drawback to a system that leaves a 12-0 Boise State team in the Fiesta Bowl instead of the national championship. Despite a weaker schedule, Boise State has a legitimate beef this year for not being invited to the big dance -- they beat the Oregon State team that beat USC later in the season -- and that leaves me with the following thought:
The BCS system is a faulty one, and only by luck has the system delivered occasional decent results. I'm sure we all remember the year Auburn went undefeated in a strong SEC and still got shafted out of the national title game. Things like that are bound to happen year after year, even to lesser-likely national contenders from the WAC, MAC or Big East. And I agree with you about the political stuff. Anyone who says that a playoff system woouldn't work for Division I-A football is a money-hungry liar. To hear the suits talk about how they don't want these kids to play more games over the holidays is patronizing on so many levels. Division II runs a football playoff system fine, and D1 basketball is played all through the holidays save for December 25 and 26 -- so arguments that it can't be done continue to fall on deaf and angry ears.
I have bested the coin, but I still have a ways to go before people begin calling me the next Mel Kiper.
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