NFL Playoffs 2007 –Super Bowl XLI – A Guide to Getting Paid

Going into the Conference Championship round I was down $90. I made some bold predictions and in the end, came out ahead.

Here’s a breakdown of last weekend’s action:

$200 Chicago -1/Over 43 (Parlay) +$540
$200 Over 43 (Bears/Saints) +$200
$100 New England +3 -$110
$100 Under 47.5 (Pats/Colts) -$110
$100 NE+3/Under 47.5 (Parlay) -$110

So as it stands, going into Super Bowl Weekend, I’m up $420. Not bad, almost 50% increase.

I will start my Super Bowl pick by letting you all in on a little secret.

I’m going to Vegas for the game. It’s the third time I’ve done this, and historically, I’m 50%. The only time I actually collected on a Super Bowl bet was back in 2003 for Super Bowl XXXVII when Tampa Bay beat the Raiders up and down the field. I hit a parlay, and the initial feeling was like seeing a girl naked for the first time…I was hooked. The next year I took The Patriots, who won the game but didn’t cover.

This year I’m looking to make a statement and move to 2 for 3.

SUPER BOWL XLI – CHICAGO BEARS vs. INDIANAPOLIS COLTS
EARLY LINE: COLTS -7 O/U 48.5

This game hits close to home. Growing up in a suburb of Chicago, I’ve been two things my entire life: a Bears fan and a White Sox fan. In 2005 I got to witness, first hand, the joy of a baseball team winning a World Series and the difference it can make in someone’s life. It was a joyous moment for the City of Chicago and the fans. But there’s one thing about Chicago that outsiders may not comprehend…Nothing can compare to a Bears Super Bowl win. The World Series was a big deal, but you have to remember, this is a City with TWO baseball teams. You’ve got two very different groups of people rooting for two very different teams. In essence, it’s a City divided.

But EVERYONE loves the Bears. EVERYONE. A Super Bowl XLI win could quite possibly SHUT CHICAGO DOWN. I for one want to see it happen…people marching down the Dan Ryan in controlled chaos, Mayor Daley making February 4th a state wide holiday, Jay Mariotti getting lynched and hug from the antennae of the Sears Tower, Chris Farley’s body exhumed for one more episode of Bill Swerski’s Super Fans, Jim Belushi dropping dead of a heart attack…it’d be a great day in the history of the City.

But enough of that gibberish…time to break this one down.

THE NUMBERS:
The Bears and the Colts have played seven games since Super Bowl XX, and the Bears have won six of them.

Indy’s regular season losses came at the hands of Dallas, Tennessee, Jacksonville, and Houston. The Bears were beat by Miami, New England, and Green Bay.

On the road to the Super Bowl the Colts have beaten Kansas City, Baltimore, and New England. The Bears have defeated Seattle and New Orleans.

All the trends point to this game playing OVER, however the Bears Defense has stepped up their game and with the exception of the New England game the Colt’s D has been stellar in the playoffs.

In the first three playoff appearances, Peyton Manning has thrown 2 TD’s and 6 INT’s. Rex Grossman has thrown 2 TD’s and 1 INT.

Speaking of turnovers, the Bears are +3 in the Giveaway/Takeaway column.

By the numbers, the Colts Defense has been the best in the playoffs, allowing 229 yards/game while holding opponents to a 22.2% Third Down Success Rate, and a meager 16 points per game. But they have been the most penalized with 16 flags for 115 yards.

The Bears Defense is ranked seventh, allowing 340.5 yards/game with a 35.7% Third Down Success Rate, and only 19 points per game. The unit has been flagged 11 times for 63 yards.

AND by the numbers, these two teams match up well offensively. The Colts are ranked #2 in the playoffs and the Bears #3.

The Colts, 383 yards/game, 47% Third Down, 10 penalties for 91 yards, 25 points/game played (3) came to life last weekend after falling behind 21-3 to Tom Brady and the Patriots.

The Bears, 355 yards/game, 30.6% Third Down, 6 penalties for 45 yards, 33 points/game played (2) have been feeding opponents a steady diet of Thomas Jones and Cedric Benson to set up Rex Grossman for the deep ball.

Those are the numbers of this whole thing.

But when one steps back to analyze this game there are a few match ups to consider.

Peyton Manning vs. Brian Urlacher.
Both are great football minds. Both are young players whose names have been mentioned with the all time greats of the sport. Peyton is the field general of the offense, Brian is the master of the defense. These two are going to toy with each other all game, but in the end I think Urlacher will get the best of Peyton.

John Tait vs. Dwight Freeney.
John Tait has been great at left tackle all season for the Bears. But he faces Freeney whose numbers (29 tackles, 5.5 sacks, 4 forced fumbles) speak for themselves.

Devin Hester vs. Colts Special Teams.
New England’s return man Ellis Hobbs had a great day against the Colt’s weak kick coverage, and Hobbs is by no means the ‘Windy City Flier.’ Hester might be able to break one in the biggest game of his career.

Cedric Benson vs. Colts Defense.
Benson has been used effectively in the first two playoff games as a human battering ram. The man runs north and south, usually right at would be tacklers, and more often than not, over them. He’s been able to soften the Defense and give Thomas Jones the ability to run wild. These two make a perfect one-two punch.

Marvin Harrison/Reggie Wayne vs. Charles Tillman.
‘Peanut’ Tillman has been picked on in every game this post season. Quarterbacks know to stay away from Nathan Vasher, so Tillman ends up being exploited. Tillman was the man who was three steps behind Steve Smith in the 2005 NFC playoff game, when Smith racked up over 200 yards receiving.

Colts Offensive Line vs. Bears Defensive Line.
With the loss of Tommie Harris the Bears D-Line had been lacking pressure on the Quarterback, until last week against the #1 offense in the NFL. But with legal troubles potentially keeping Tank Johnson in the state of Illinois for the Super Bowl, the Bears may need to find another source of pressure. It’s a known that Blitzing Defenses get CARVED UP by Peyton Manning, so the D Line must get pressure.

That’s a lot to digest.

Bottom line:
I’m taking the Bears and the points. I personally don’t think that any team can beat the Bears if they play the way they did last week. Yes, Peyton lead is team to a huge come from behind victory against his arch rival Tom Brady. But I think the Bears are too much to handle.

And I’ve said it for three straight weeks and been wrong every time…Peyton Manning will lose.

This time it’s nice to know that loss will come at the hands of My Chicago Bears.

BEARS +7, UNDER 48.5